Sunday, March 28, 2010

Deja Vu for Calipari in NCAA Tournament

Raise your hand if you thought Kentucky would actually win the national championship this year? If so, I hate to say I told you so. John Calipari's team once again struggles to shoot jumpers and make free throws in a 73-66 to loss to West Virginia in the Elite 8.

Despite having a plus-15 rebound (51-36) advantage over the Mountaineers, Kentucky turned the ball over 16 times, shot a terrible 4-32 (13 %) from beyond the arc, and 16-29 (55 %) from the charity stripe. In fact, the Wildcats missed 20 straight threes before a DeAndre Liggins jumper fell with only 3:29 remaining in the game.

Some people might say Kentucky simply had an off night. Well, as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast my friend." Calipari's clubs have historically struggled to shoot the ball with any consistency. They found out that trying to make a three against a talented West Virginia squad isn't the same when you're blowing out an inferior squad by 30. Simply put. The threes fall when there isn't any pressure.

If you're a Calipari fan, you've seen enough of this in recent years to see how this game would play out. Many analysts have talked about how Mike D'Antoni, Don Nelson, and Alvin Gentry's all offense and no defense schemes won't produce titles. As of 2010, neither coach has an NBA Finals appearance under his belt. What about Calipari's system of simply running out in transition and getting tons of dunks and lay-ups? His teams fail to make jumpers and free throws on a consistent basis. The paltry shooting percentages will not work once you face a talented team deep in the tournament. Like the NBA coaches listed above, his style won't work. Granted, Nelson and D'Antoni's teams have made deep runs in the NBA playoffs. D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns even made it to the 2006 Western Conference Finals. However, in the end, each coach and his style of play has fallen short. In honor of Hot Tube Machine, the new movie starring John Cusack to hit theaters this weekend, let's go back in time.

In 2006, the Memphis Tigers were on-verge of making their first trip to the Final Four in over 20 years. However, Memphis fell short 50-45 in part to a lousy 32% from the field, and 2-17 (12%) from three point line, and 9-15 (60%) from the foul line. What's really disappointing is that UCLA couldn't make a shot either. The Bruins shot 35% from the field, 25% from three point range, and 51% from the free throw line.

In 2007, the Tigers were simply overmatched to the eventual NCAA runner-up Ohio State Buckeyes in the Elite 8. Despite center Joey Dorsey's pregame overrated reference to Ohio State center Greg Oden, the Tigers were easily handled in a 92-76 loss. This game actually would've been worse if Memphis hadn't of made 46% of the threes (10-22). Memphis only shot 40% from the field and 70% from the charity stripe.

In 2008, it looked like it would finally be Calipari's year. Memphis led by nine with 2:12 remaining in the game. All you have to do is make your free throws down the stretch and you win the game. Thanks to making 1-5 foul shots in the last 1:15 and a memorable three from guard Mario Chalmers, the game headed to overtime. Kansas kept momentum on their side with a 75-68 win. Memphis shot 40% from the field, 6-22 (27%) from downtown, and 63% (12-19) from the free throw line. Despite only making 25% of their threes, Jayhawks shot 52% from the field and 93% from the foul line.

In 2009, Calipari faced an old nemesis in Mike Anderson in the Sweet 16. Anderson's UAB squad was the last team to beat Memphis in Conference USA (back in 2006). Anderson's Missouri squad prevailed 102-91 to advance to the Elite 8. Memphis was able to shot 51% from the field. But it was deja vu all over again. Memphis shot 20% from three point range and 18-32 (56%) from the charity stripe.

Although it's certainly to early to tell, but it appears the Wildcats will lose center DeMarcus Cousins and guard John Wall to the NBA Draft. Forward Patrick Patterson and guard Eric Bledsoe might be in the group to leave as well. Kentucky will probably haul in another top 5 class and will repeat their performance next year. They will load up on the recruits and take advantage of a weak SEC to get a top seed. They'll probably make another deep run in the tournament again next year, but lose once they face a high quality team. But until Calipari changes his style, the old saying in Lexington will be "Elite 8 or bust".