5. South Florida
Along with Tom Herman (Houston), Willie Taggart should be one of the hottest names for openings at the Power 5 schools at season's end. Don't let his career 46-63 career record fool you. He's built and re-built both Western Kentucky and South Florida programs. Under his guidance, the Bulls have improved from 2-10 in year one, 4-8 in the second year, to 8-5 last year.
Junior quarterback Quentin Flowers, who's one of the top dual threat quarterbacks, returns under center. He completed 59 percent of his passes, threw for 2,296 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He also rushed for 991 yards on 191 carries and 12 touchdowns.
Junior running back Marlon Mack is perhaps the best running back in the American Athletic Conference. Last season, he rushed for 1,381 yards on 210 carries and eight touchdowns. In his career, Mack's rushed for 2,422 yards and 17 touchdowns. Barring injuries, look for Mack to inch closer to 1,800 yards this year.
Flower's top target is senior wide receiver Rodney Adams, who caught 45 passes for 822 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Redshirt junior linebacker Auggie Sanchez's 117 tackles leads a defense that tied for 24th last season in turnovers forced and tied for 35th in scoring defense.
Key games: vs. Northern Illinois (Sept. 10), vs. Florida State (Sept. 24), at Cincinnati (Oct. 1), at Temple (Oct. 21), vs. Navy (Oct. 28)
Northern Illinois is one of the gold standards for the "Group of Five" programs. A win over the Huskies should give South Florida the confident needed moving forward. If they clear that hurdle, a larger one awaits in Florida State. The Florida State game represents an opportunity for Taggart to put the team on the map nationally, enter the top 25, and possibly earn a shot at an "access bowl" at the end of the season.
4. Houston
Coming off a national championship with Ohio State as the offensive coordinator in 2014, Tom Herman quickly established himself as one of college football's brightest young coaches. He led the Cougars to a 13-1 record and a 38-24 win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
How do you top that for an encore? By reaching the College Football Playoffs. That's what Herman and company are aiming for in 2016.
The good news is senior Greg Ward, Jr. returns and should be on the preseason watch list for the Heisman trophy. The nifty dual threat quarterback completed 67 percent of his passes, threw for 2,828 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He also rushed for 1108 yards and 21 touchdowns.
The bad news is the leading receiver (Demarcus Ayers, 98 receptions, 1222 yards, 8 touchdowns) and starting running back Kenneth Farrow (958 yards, 12 touchdowns) are gone and must be replaced.
The Cougars will rely on transfers (running back) Duke Catalon (Texas), (wide receiver) Chance Allen (Oregon), and (wide receiver) Ra'Shaad Samples (Oklahoma State) to soften the blow.
Allen, who recorded 56 receptions for 752 yards and 6 touchdowns, is the leading returning receiver and will be counted on to help replace Ayers.
Houston's defense finished 20th in scoring defense, but lost three players who combined for 13 of the team's 21 interceptions. The team also must replace linebacker Elandon Roberts, who led the team in tackles (142) and tackles for loss (19) to go along with six sacks.
Key games: vs. Oklahoma (neutral site, Sept. 1) at Cincinnati (Sept. 15), at Navy (Oct. 8), vs. Tulsa (Oct. 15), vs. Louisville (Nov. 17)
The newcomers on defense will not have the luxury of a cupcake to build confidence as the Cougars open the season in a showdown against Oklahoma at NRG Stadium in Houston.
If they can overcome Oklahoma, a trip to the playoffs may well be within reach. The other games, while tough, are definitely more manageable.
3. Temple
Surprise, surprise. Another team from the American Athletic Conference makes the list. Add to the fact they are led by a young coach. Mark it down. The AAC has the best corps of coaches in the country. Matt Rhule is another young coach (41) who's quickly rising up the rankings in college football. It's hard to fathom Temple was once a team so bad, they were kicked out of the Big East. Those days are long gone, and Ruhl is trying to take the Owls to the next level.
Offensively, Temple will be led by seniors (quarterback) P.J. Walker and (running back) Jahad Thomas.
In 2015, Walker threw for 2,973 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He added 207 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Thomas returns after rushing for 1,262 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground a year ago. He also caught 22 catches for 216 yards and a touchdown.
The Owls must replace last season's leading receiver Robby Anderson (70 catches, 939 yards, 7 touchdowns). One guy who could replace him is sophomore Ventrell Bryant, the second leading receiver, who tallied 579 yards and three touchdowns last season.
Defensively, Temple was ranked 20th in total defense last year. However, the Owls must replace linebacker Tyler Matakevich, who was the heart and soul of the defense for the past four seasons. Replacing him is easier said than done. Matakevich finished his career with 493 stops, 40.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, and seven interceptions.
Temple will need everyone to elevate their game to soften the blow. Senior linebacker Jarred Alwan (74 tackles, 7 for loss) will be the leader of the linebacker corps.
Key games: at Penn State (Sept. 17), vs. South Florida (Oct. 21), vs. Cincinnati (Oct. 29)
Ruhl scored a major victory by beating Penn State for the first time in 74 years last year. Another win over the Nittany Lions should keep them undefeated until a pivotal showdown at home against South Florida, which could determine the winner of the Eastern division of the AAC. A win over South Florida could lead to a winner take all showdown against Houston for the AAC championship, a "New Year's Day Six" game, or a spot in the college football playoff.
2. San Diego State
Last year's Mountain West Coach of the year, Rocky Long, has the San Diego State football program heading in the right direction after an 11 win season and steamrolling Cincinnati on New Year's Eve.
Though the team loses Maxwell Smith at quarterback, the team will have sophomore Christian Chapman returning as the heir apparent at the position. Chapman filled in nicely last year when Smith suffered an injury towards the end of last season.
At Chapman's disposal is reigning Mountain West Player of the Year Donnel Pumphrey. The senior rushed for 1,653 yards and 17 touchdowns and led the team in receptions (28), finished second in receiving yards (423), and caught three touchdowns.
The Aztecs boasted the best defense in the league and one of the top defenses in the country. They finished fifth in country in total defense (287.3 yards per game) and tied for second in turnovers forced (34).
Senior cornerback Damontae Kazee returns to anchor the defense after receiving the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year honors. Kazee, who recorded 75 tackles and eight picks, should be able to cut the field in half for opposing offenses to continue solid defense for the Aztecs.
Senior linebacker Calvin Munson will be the leader of the linebacker corps. Munson finished 2015 with 98 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries.
On special teams, the Aztecs have the ever dangerous Rashad Penny. The redshirt junior who received Special Teams Player of the Year last year, returning three kickoffs for touchdowns and averaging 33.5 yards per return.
Key games: vs. California (Sept. 10), at Northern Illinois (Sept. 17), at Utah State (Oct. 29), at Nevada (Nov. 12), vs. Colorado State (Nov. 26)
The Aztecs will have revenge on their minds after getting blown out 35-7 in Berkeley last year. With Jared Goff off to the NFL, the Bears will have a bit of a transition year this year, which should bode well for Long.
If they get past California, they will have a date with Northern Illinois on the road, which will be a very tough test. If they get past the Huskies, a few crucial showdowns in league play could dictate how far the Aztecs can go this season.
1. Boise State
After reaching and winning the Fiesta Bowl in his first year at the helm, Bryan Harsin's Broncos slumped to an 8-5 season last year. The Broncos struggled with injuries and inexperience in their transition year.
After losing starting quarterback Ryan Finley to a broken ankle early in the season, true freshman Brett Rypien thrived as a starter. Rypien completed 63.6 percent of his passes, threw for 3.,353 yards, 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on his way to the Mountain West Freshman of the Year award.
He took his lumps, but showed a high amount of poise for a youngster. Look for this experience to pay dividends this year.
The running game didn't miss a beat after the early departure of Jay Ajayi to the NFL draft in 2014. Junior Jeremy McNichols rushed for 1,337 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. He also added 51 receptions, 460 yards, and six touchdowns.
Rypien will have experience at receiver and tight end at his disposal. Senior Thomas Sperbeck led the receiving corps in receptions (88), yards (1,412) and touchdowns (8). Redshirt senior Chaz Anderson caught 42 passes for 578 yards and three touchdowns. Redshirt junior tight end Jake Roh (33 receptions, 357 yards, 1 touchdown) presents another piece in a talented offense.
Despite losing a pair of first team All-Mountain West offensive linemen, the Broncos are slated to start three seniors up front.
On defense, the Broncos must replace departing players from last year. First team all Mountain West safety Darien Thompson will be missed after recording 65 tackles (8.5 for loss) and leading the team in interceptions (5). The team must also replace linebacker Tyler Gray and defensive linemen Tyler Horn, Kamalei Correa, and Armand Nance.
Redshirt senior linebacker Ben Weaver returns after recording a team high 68 tackles and adding three interceptions.
The kicking game is in good hands and full of experience. Redshirt senior Tyler Rausa, a first team all Mountain and Lou Groza semifinalist, is back after making 25 out 30 field goals. Redshirt senior Sean Wale averaged 42 yards per punt and landed 21 inside the 20.
Key games: vs. Washington State (Sept. 10), vs. Colorado State (Oct. 15), vs. BYU (Oct. 20), at Air Force (Nov. 26)
The schedule sets up quite nicely for the Broncos who should have one tough road game, which will come in the regular season finale.
Washington State will put up points on the defense, but Rypien and company should be able to score 50 or more points and rack somewhere near 600 yards of offense.. I'd expect the Broncos to win 52-38.
The only obstacle before a potential showdown with San Diego State, will be on the road against Air Force. The Falcons have won the last two meetings over the Broncos, and have a dangerous triple option offense that's very difficult on defenses.
If both San Diego State and Boise State pass their tests in the regular season, the league could very well be set up to that of the AAC, and have the winner of their game reach a New Year's Day Six bowl.
Most Likely Result:
In a rarity in today's college football world, I predict two teams from the Group of Five will receive New Year's Day Six games. I predict a 12-0 Houston team will lose to South Florida (11-1) in the AAC championship game, and Boise State will defeat San Diego State in a battle of the undefeated in the Mountain West championship.
Houston will have a ton of pressure to add to their success from last year, and I think it will weigh on them in the championship. I predicted Houston will beat Oklahoma in the opener and cruise undefeated through the remaining regular season schedule, but the pressure becomes too much for a team who will be playing for a playoff spot. However, I do feel the committee will reward them for their year with a New Year's Day Six game.
Boise State is undefeated in New Year's Day Six games and they have a big enough name that they won't be excluded. If they run the table, they're in.
