Saturday, May 21, 2016

2016 French Open Men's Predictions and Preview

Champion: (1) Novak Djokovic
Despite a shocking loss to Jiri Vesely in the second round in Monte Carlo and the final in Rome to Murray, Djokovic is still the man to beat. He's hungry and primed to hoist his first Coupe de Mousquetaire in two weeks. He has a very favorable draw that could see him possibly face (7) Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals.

In the semifinals, the ultimate test could truly lie in  nine time French Open Champion, (4)Rafael Nadal. Nadal has definitely improved his game from a year ago, but he hasn't taken a set off Djokovic since the 2014 French Open final. In the final, (2) Murray, (3) Wawrinka, or (5) Nishikori awaits.

We saw how the stress and pressure of winning the French Open manifest itself through visible frustrations throughout the tournament. Can he do a better job of composing himself the next two weeks? Djokovic knows he's not getting any younger, and now is his time to win the French Open, win the career Grand Slam, and be the first man since Rod Laver to hold all four slams at once. If so, he should find himself as the first time winner.

Toughest Road: (3) Rafael Nadal and (5) Kei Nishikori
Okay. I'm going to cop out on this one. I couldn't decide which guy had a tougher road. So, I decided they both have it. Nishikori could face unseeded Fernando Verdasco in the third round, either (17) Nick Kyrgios or (9) Richard Gasquet in the round of 16, (2) Andy Murray in the quarterfinals, (3) Stan Wawrinka in the semifinal, and (1) Novak Djokovic in the final.

Rafa could face (32) Fabio Fognini, who beat him three out of five times last year, in the third round. Afterwards, he could face (13) Dominic Thiem, who at the age of 22, has already solidified himself as one of the top clay courters on tour. Four of his five titles have come on dirt. If he gets past Thiem, (6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or (12) David Goffin awaits. At that point, the only two things that would stand in Rafa's way of claiming an unprecedented tenth French Open title, is Djokovic in the semifinals and Murray in the final.

Dark Horse: (25) Pablo Cuevas
Cuevas has won five titles in his career, all have come on clay. He won titles in Rio (including a win over Nadal in the semifinals) and Sao Paolo during the Golden Swing in February.

Cuevas could face (Q) Tobias Kamke, (WC) Chung Hyeon, (7) Berdych, and (11) Ferrer. However, I've already alluded to Berdych's struggles this year. Plus, Cuevas has won their only career meeting on the outdoor hardcourt. So, he knows he can beat him and what it takes to beat him. Cuevas also has the advantage of playing Berdych on clay, his preferred surface.

Ferrer missed a couple of months due to injuries, but came back for the events in Madrid and Rome, where he fell in the third round in both tournaments. In a final tune-up before the French Open, Ferrer lost to Marin Cilic in the semifinals. How much will the 34-year-old have left in the tank? This could be the opening for Cuevas, who has never beaten "the Little Beast" in three tries.

Most Likely to be Upset: (8) Tomas Berdych
Although he's a former semifinalist (2010), the French Open has not been very kind for Berdych. He's lost in the first round five out of 12 times to unseeded player, including 2009 (Simone Bolelli), 2011 (Stephane Robert), and 2013 (Gael Monfils).

The last time we saw Berdych, he received a double bagel at the hands of David Goffin in the third round in Rome. Since then, he's parted with Dani Vallverdu. These are not the issues you want to deal with heading into a major tournament.

Players to Watch: (29) Lucas Pouille, Borna Coric, (25) Pablo Cuevas, (17) Nick Kyrgios, and (12) David Goffin

I picked Pouille, in addition to Cuevas, to reach the quarterfinals. Pouille has been on a roll as of late and has seen a big boost in his ranking. His surprise semifinal run as a lucky loser in Rome helped to spark his current ranking. I predicted Pouille to upset (8) Milos Raonic and (10) Marin Cilic in the third round and round of 16.

Coric faces fellow teenager, Taylor Fritz in the first round. Afterwards, he could face (20) Bernard Tomic, who's worst surface is clay, in the second round. In the third round, he could face (14) Roberto Bautista Agut, who's a better hard court player than clay court player.

Kyrgios could face (9) Richard Gasquet and (5) Kei Nishikori in the third and fourth round. However, he had to solid showings in losses in Madrid (to Nishikori) and Rome (to Nadal). He has a monster serve and heavy ground strokes. If he's able to hit through the court, he could make some noise this year.

Goffin is a solid player who's game suits clay. He could face the steady (24) Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round and the inconsistent (6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the round of 16. I'll put it like this. If Tsonga brings his 'A' game, Goffin doesn't stand a chance. If Tsonga brings his 'B' game, it'll be coin toss. If Tsonga brings his C game or worse, he'll get embarrassed in straight sets.

1st Round Matches to Watch:
Borna Coric vs. Taylor Fritz
Chung Hyeon vs. (WC) Quentin Halys
(18) Kevin Anderson vs. (WC) Stephane Robert
Alexander Zverev vs. Pierre-Hughes Herbert
Nicolas Almagro vs. (24) Philipp Kohlschreiber
Andreas Seppi vs. Ernests Gulbis
Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs. Horacio Zeballos
Diego Schwartzman vs. Guido Pella
Grigor Dimitrov vs. (22) Viktor Troicki
(30) Jeremy Chardy vs. Leonardo Mayer
Fernando Verdasco vs. (33) Steve Johnson
Thomaz Bellucci vs. (9) Richard Gasquet
(27) Ivo Karlovic vs. Albert Montanes









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