Tuesday, July 7, 2015
2015 Wimbledon Men's Quarterfinal Preview
Men's Quarterfinals:
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Marin Cilic
The number one player in the world survived a stern test from (14) Kevin Anderson by coming back from a two sets to love deficit.
Cilic survived a 12-10 fifth set in the round over the "Marathon Man" John Isner.
These two played last year with Djokovic coming back two sets to one down.
Cilic is the type of player that blows hot and cold. You expect him to make a deep run to the quarterfinals or semifinals, but loses in the first or second round. He receives a dangerous opponent in the first round, but makes a deep run.
Cilic was regaining his form after missing nearly a year due to a suspension. This time, his form has been lacking, but he deserves credit for making it this far.
Cilic's coach, Goran Ivanisevic, deserves a lot of credit for helping the 6-foot-6 Cilic amp up his serve. This slight adjustment helped him win his first major title at the U.S. Open last year. Unfortunately, Djokovic is the best returner in the game today.
I don't see an upset here. Cilic will do well to get a set and make it competitive, kind of what Grigor Dimitrov did against Djokovic last year. But then again, I didn't think Anderson could have Nole on the brink of elimination either.
I don't see Cilic breaking Djokovic's serve a lot. For him, his best chance will be taking a page out of Anderson's book and beating him in tiebreakers.
For Djokovic, this is where coach Boris Becker earns his money. Becker, a three time Wimbledon champion, knows exactly what he's going through. Djokovic will look to punish Cilic with his lethal groundstrokes and mix in a little bit of volleying to keep him guessing.
Djokovic doesn't seem as distracted by his crushing French Open loss as I thought he might've been. Nevertheless, if Cilic can somehow, someway, regain his top form, this could be an interesting match.
(4) Stan Wawrinka vs. (21) Richard Gasquet
This match will display the best one-handed backhands in the game today. Gasquet has done well to get to this point in the tournament. He's beaten a struggling Dimitrov and a dangerous, but inconsistent Kyrgios to reach this point.
Wawrinka's previous career best a Wimbledon was a quarterfinal appearance last year. He looks to be in good shape to go further this year.
Gasquet has played very well in this tournament and looks to be peaking at the right time. Still, there's a reason why Wawrinka has won two career major titles, despite his inconsistencies.
Stan the Man has yet to drop a set so far. His aggressive game and hard, flat groundstrokes (especially on the backhand side) is paying off on the quick grass surface. He uses it to bully his opponents on the court and not allowing them to get into a rhythm.
For Gasquet, he needs Wawrinka to bring his "B" game or lower. If Wawrinka bring his "A" game, there won't be a lot he can do to hurt him. Still, Gasquet needs to dictate play and stay away from Wawrinka's lethal backhand. As good as Gasquet's backhand is, Wawrinka's is clearly better.
Vasek Posipil vs. (3) Andy Murray
Pospisil has been a benefactor of (8) David Ferrer's withdraw and (10) Rafael Nadal's second round loss. Nevertheless, he's beaten the guys he's had to play (including seeded players Fognini and Troicki), and he should be commended for it.
Pospisil has a nice serve, but it's not as good as Ivo Karlovic's. Karlovic was able to use his serve and an aggressive offensive approach to cause a host of problems for Murray. Karlovic hit a whopping 29 aces (with only four double faults), and 75 winners (to only 32 unforced errors). Karlovic's demise was his poor return game (he broke only once out five tries) and a poor net game in which he won only 46/106 (43%) points won at the net.
For Pospisil to have a chance, he will need to be aggressive, like Karlovic, but do a better job attacking Murray's serve and doing a lot better at the net.
Murray will be the overwhelming favorite in front of his home crowd. Still, Pospisil doesn't really have the weapons to hurt Murray. The key for Murray is to not get too defensive. There are certain times in a match when Murray, especially when he's feeling pressure (i.e. down break point or set point), gets too defensive and allows his opponents to push him around on the court. Of course, when playing the likes of Djokovic or Federer, this usually spells trouble, but Pospisil is no where near those two players' level.
(12) Gilles Simon vs. (2) Roger Federer
Simon, who routinely dispatched (6) Tomas Berdych in a straight sets upset in the round of 16, is only in his second career major quarterfinal and his best career result at SW19.
Simon only sports a career 2-5 record versus "FedEx", and hasn't beaten him since the pair's first two meetings in Canada and the Tennis Masters Cup (now known as the ATP World Tour Finals) in 2008. Still, he's taken Federer to five sets in both of their career meetings in majors (2011 Australian Open and 2013 French Open). In their last meeting, Federer needed a pair of tiebreakers (7-6 (6),7-6(2)) to beat him in the finals in Shanghai.
Oddly, this is the first career meeting on grass for the Frenchman and Swiss maestro.
Simon seems like a consistent guy, who won't overwhelm anyone with power, but will not go away. Although he doesn't crush the ball, he's accurate with his groundstrokes.
Federer, who's looking to prove he can win majors at nearly 34 years of age, has all the pressure on his shoulders in this match. Federer is one of the best players at dealing with pressure. So, that shouldn't be a problem.
Simon's problem is he's too defensive. He will need to get out of his comfort zone and push Federer around the court. This is a big ask for him, and it will be harder for him to do it in a best of five sets format.
However, at his advanced age, the last thing Federer wants is to spend four or five hours a five set battle. We've seen what these types of battles have done to him in recent years. He won't have anything left in the tank. At the U.S. Open last year, he survived Gael Monfils by coming back down two sets to win only to be destroyed by the eventual champion, Cilic in straight sets. The Olympic format uses a best two out three format leading to final. He edged out Juan Martin del Potro in a vicious 19-17 third set battle, but was dismantled by Murray in the final.
Federer will look to keep the points short and not get into too many long rallies. He does a good job of attacking the net and mixing in serve and volleying throughout his matches.
Simon will need to be ready to pass Federer and make him pay whenever he comes in to the net.
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