Third Round Upsets:
Men's
(WC) Denis Kudla d. Santiago Giraldo 6-2, 6-7(3), 2-6, 6-1, 6-3
(21) Richard Gasquet d. (11) Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
(26) Nick Kyrgios d. (7) Milos Raonic, 5-7, 7-5, 7-6(3), 6-3
(23) Ivo Karlovic d. (13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(9)
Women's
Zarina Diyas d. (14) Andrea Petkovic 7-5, 6-4
Coco Vandeweghe d. (22) Sam Stosur 6-0, 6-2
(20) Garbine Muguruza d. (10) Angelique Kerber 7-6(12), 1-6, 6-2
(Q) Olga Govortsova d. Magdalena Rybarikova 7-6(4), 6-3
(28) Jelena Jankovic d. (2) Petra Kvitova 3-6, 7-5, 6-4
Round of 16 Matches to Watch/Upset Alert:
Men's
(26) Nick Kyrgios d. (21) Richard Gasquet
I'm not sure how much of an upset this would be, if Kyrgios won. After all, he upset Gasquet in the second round, and came back from two sets to love down in the process. As documented before, Gasquet has had his struggles for the past year and a half, but Kyrgios hasn't done much outside the slams, outside of upsetting Federer in Madrid in May.
These two faced off in the final in Estori in May. Gasquet cruised to a routine 6-3, 6-2 win, but the match was on clay.
Gasquet probably has the second best one hand backhand (behind Stan Wawrinka) in the game today. Kyrgios seems to posses more firepower constantly with his groundstrokes on the backhand and forehand wings. Plus, he will be able to get more cheap points on his serve.
I predict Kyrgios pulls off the upset and advances to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for the second consecutive year.
(23) Ivo Karlovic vs. (3) Andy Murray
"Dr. Ivo" caused a massive shock by sending the reigining champion Lleyton Hewitt packing in a first round upset at Wimbledon in 2003.
Karlovic definitely has the game to cause problems for the top players. Novak Djokovic has lost three matches this year: in the final of the French Open to Stan Wawrinka, in the final in Dubai to Roger Federer, and to Karlovic in Doha in January.
Karlovic's problem is his poor movement and lack of quality returns will hurt him in his match. However, Karlovic knows he can't hang with Murray on the baseline. So, he will probably look to utilize serve and volley throughout the match. Imagine trying to pass someone 6 feet 10 inches at the net!!!
Ever since winning Wimbledon in 2013, Murray finally got rid of the pressure of winning Wimbledon off his back. Murray will probably look to utilize slices to keep the ball low on Karlovic, and just do anything to get the ball back in play on Karlovic's serves. Murray is one of the best defenders. He will hope to wear Karlovic down by making the match physical, while Karlovic will look to shorten points.
Karlovic can win one set (probably in a tiebreaker), but I don't see him beating Murray in a best of five match on Murray's turf.
Women's
(1) Serena Williams vs. (16) Venus Williams
For the first time since 2009, we will get a Williams sisters showdown at Wimbledon. Serena holds a 14-11 lead in their rivalry and a 3-2 lead on grass. Nevertheless, Venus was able to snap her five match losing streak to her little sister in the semifinals at the Rogers Cup last August.
Serena and Venus have split their last two meetings at SW19. Venus beat Serena in the final in 2008, with Serena returning the favor the next year.
Venus has had an easier time at Wimbledon while Serena narrowly avoided the upset against home crowd favorite Heather Watson in the third round.
This matchup is going to come down to who will be able to hold their nerve in this match. Serena has a lot riding on the line in this match. She's only lost once this year, and is looking for her second "Serena" slam of her career. She's also looking to keep her chances of a calendar year Grand slam alive.
For 35-year old Venus, this may be her last chance to hold the Venus Rosewater dish. Will she be able to hit her spots on her serve? Will she be able to shorten points and come in?
Serena needs to clean up her game. She seemed lethargic at certain points in her match with Watson in the third round. With Wimbledon not having play on the middle Sunday, Serena will get two days off to recover and to hit the practice courts to fine tune her game.
I like Serena to win, but I think she will win in two tight sets.
(23) Victoria Azarenka vs. (30) Belinda Bencic
This matchup pits a former number one player in the world vs. an 18-year old upstart. Will Bencic be able to play as loose as Dustin Brown did in his upset of Rafa? Is Azarenka regaining her form that took her to two major titles and the number one ranking?
Bencic doesn't look like she has enough in her arsenal to pull off the upset, but I feel she could win a set, and make Vika feel pressure in this match.
(4) Maria Sharapova vs. Zarina Diyas
Diyas has already upset (24) Flavia Pennetta and (14) Petkovic. Can she pull off her third upset in four matches?
It's possible. Sharapova's serve is known to be erratic with multiple double faults. This match will come down to whether Diyas can hold her serve while doing enough to put pressure on Sharapova's.
Also, will she throw in slices to the 6 foot 2 inch Sharapova. The low ball tosses would give Sharapova fits.
Sharapova doesn't move well. Will she be able to hit through the court and dictate play?
Sharapova needs to clean up the unforced errors, in particular the double faults, in her game. She knows Diyas doesn't have anything to lose, and will probably be loose in this match. However, Sharapova has a very aggressive game with flat groundstrokes that should translate very well on grass.
Even though she's lost in the round of 16 two of the last three years, I don't see it happening this year. Diyas will do some things well, but I don't think she has the weapons to hurt Sharapova. Crazier things have happened, but I like Sharapova to advance in straight sets.
Coco Vandeweghe vs. (6) Lucie Safarova
Vandeweghe has been on fire at Wimbledon this year scoring two big upsets against (11) Karolina Pliskova and (22) Stosur in the second and third rounds respectively.
Safarova has been one of the most consistent players on tour this year and could move up higher in the rankings if she's able to defend last year's semifinal points.
Vandeweghe has a big serve that will definitely give Safarova problems. However, Safarova did a good job of avoiding the upset against an improving Sloane Stephens. I think Safarova is too consistent with her game to lose, but Vandeweghe should win one set. This will be a fun match to watch.
(5) Caroline Wozniacki vs. (20) Garbine Muguruza
Wozniacki is in her fifth round of 16 at Wimbledon, but is looking to advance to the quarterfinals for the first time.
Muguruza is coming off a big upset over former Wimbledon simifinalist (10) Kerber.
Muguruza has talent, but has been too inconsistent with her game. With the upset of Serena in the second round of the French Open last year, I thought she would end the year knocking on the top ten. It hasn't worked out that way, but she's proven to be one of the most dangerous players on the WTA when she's on.
Wozniacki has had a nice resurgence after fading away somewhat for the past couple of years.
Wozniacki seems too consistent for Muguruza. Muguruza brought the goods against Kerber, can she muster it up for the second straight match? I don't think so, but I do think this match will go three sets.
(13) Agnieszka Radwanksa vs. (28) Jelena Jankovic
Jankovic pulled off the biggest upset at Wimbledon so far. Her confidence has to be high, but how much does the 30-year old have left in the tank after going the distance in each of her first three matches? The extra day of rest should help, but like Wozniacki, has never been past the round of 16.
Radwanska is a former Wimbledon finalist who looks like she's slowly regaining her form. If that's the case, I like her to hold off Radwanska. If she can show the same level of consistency that took her as high as the number two ranking, she should be fine. Unfortunately for Radwanska, she doesn't seem to be at that level, yet.
This match is going to come down to who wants it more. It will go the distance, but who will have more left in the reserves in the third set?
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