Wednesday, July 8, 2015

2015 Wimbledon Men's Semifinal Preview

Quarterfinal Scores:
(1) Novak Djokovic d. (9) Marin Cilic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
(21) Richard Gasquet d. (4) Stan Wawrinka 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 11-9
(3) Andy Murray d. Vasek Pospisil 6-4, 7-5, 6-4
(2) Roger Federer d. Gilles Simon 6-3, 7-5, 6-2

(21) Richard Gasquet vs. (1) Novak Djokovic
Gasquet  is in his second career Wimbledon semifinal after edging out Wawrinka in the best match of the tournament, and one of the best in Wimbledon history. He's peaking at the right time and is looking confident. He looks as if he's regained his 2013 form that saw him reach the 2013 U.S. Open and finish inside the top 10 in the world.

Djokovic looks like he cleaned up his game in the straight sets defeat of Cilic in the quarterfinals. There wasn't a lot he did wrong and looks to be in great shape heading into this matchup.

Djokovic has owned Gasquet all-time with an 11-1 advantage, with Gasquet's lone victory coming in the Tennis Masters Cup in 2007.

Gasquet has done a great job getting to this point, but I don't feel he has enough to beat the steady Djokovic.

If he's to win, Gasquet has to go for broke and punish Nole with the one handed backhand like Wawrinka did at the French Open. Gasquet doesn't have the best serve in the world, but he needs to do everything he can to hold serve and put pressure on Nole's serve.

For Djokovic, he will look to stay sharp with his hard and flat groundstrokes and push Gasquet around the court. He can't afford to let Gasquet get into a rhythm.

I thought he fell in love with the drop shot a little too much at the French Open, but as long as he uses it sparingly, it should help him in this matchup.

In the end, I don't think Gasquet will have the weapons to pull it out. However, as long as he has a "nothing to lose" attitude and goes for his shots, he can turn this into an interesting match.

(3) Andy Murray vs. (2) Roger Federer
This will be the 23rd meeting head-to-head for both players. Federer holds a slim 12-11 advantage, but Federer has won the past three meetings, and has a 4-1 lead in meetings at the majors. They've both split their two meetings on grass. Federer won the first matchup in the 2012 Wimbledon final 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4. A few weeks later, Murray returned the favor by winning 6-2, 6-1, 6-4.

The same thing I said in the preview of the quarterfinal matches applies here as well. Murray cannot and must not become defensive. If he does, he's toast. He needs to feed off the hyped crowd and the home court advantage he possesses.

He needs to try to make the match physical and wear Federer down. At this stage of his career, if this match goes the distance (and assuming there aren't any lopsided sets like 6-0 or 6-1), I like Murray's chances.

Murray also needs to attack Federer's second serve and be able to make the passing shots when Federer approaches the net.

Murray also has a tendency to let his emotions get the best of him, at times. For him to win, he needs to accept some things won't go his way and Federer will make unbelievable shots. He must focus on the task at hand and put the bad thoughts and moments behind im.

Federer wants to shorten the match, and show why he's one of the greatest servers of all-time. Andy Roddick served the ball harder than Federer, but Federer is a master at hitting his spots.

Federer needs to be precise and attack with shots from both wings. He possesses all the shots in the arsenal with the lethal slices, drop shots, serve, forehand, and backhand.

He will also need to attack Murray's second serve. In his round of 16 match with Karlovic, Murray hit second serves clocked at 80 and 84 mph.

Can "FedEx" take out Murray in either three or four sets? Can Murray keep his emotions in check? Will Murray play the aggressive style of tennis required to beat the "Swiss Maestro", especially on grass?



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